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Sandnes Ulf II vs Staal Jørpeland — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
D. Arifagic 75'
J. Galta 64'
H. Jensen 26'
D. Eie 79'
S. Sporkel 72'
R. Maeland 10'
6/19/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 11Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II31%
×Draw19%
Staal Jørpeland50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.08
Staal Jørpeland
2.62

Staal Jørpeland creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.54
Staal Jørpeland
2.08

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
3.15
Staal Jørpeland
2.62

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
50%
Sandnes Ulf II or Staal Jørpeland
81%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
69%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
16%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
87%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
61%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
34%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
93%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
73%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
39%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.54 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.08 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
31%
level
19%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
50%

Staal Jørpeland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. Maeland
26'
H. Jensen
64'
J. Galta
72'
S. Sporkel
75'
D. Arifagic
79'
D. Eie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes Ulf II vs Staal Jørpeland

Sandnes Ulf II and Staal Jørpeland drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 19, 2025.

Goals: R. Maeland (10'), H. Jensen (26'), J. Galta (64'), S. Sporkel (72'), D. Arifagic (75'), D. Eie (79').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.