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Staaken vs Sparta Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
9/17/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Stadion an der Neuendorfer Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Staaken45%
×Draw21%
Sparta Lichtenberg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
2.13
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.84

Staaken creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.89

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
Sparta Lichtenberg
2.27

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
66%
Staaken or Sparta Lichtenberg
79%
Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg
55%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
26%
Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
88%
Staaken 2+ goals
63%
Staaken 3+ goals
35%
Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
84%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
55%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
57%
Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Staaken scores more
45%
level
21%
Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
34%

Staaken at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Staaken 1–6 Sparta Lichtenberg

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Staaken 6-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Neuendorfer Straße in Berlin.