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Sparta Lichtenberg vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Staaken
Staaken
4/12/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 24Rasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg57%
×Draw19%
Staaken24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.63
Staaken
1.69

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 56% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
76%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Staaken
81%
Draw or Staaken
43%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
37%
Staaken wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
93%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
73%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
48%
Staaken 1+ goals
82%
Staaken 2+ goals
50%
Staaken 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
70%
Staaken (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.63

Staaken attack 1.38 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
57%
level
19%
Staaken scores more
24%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Sparta Lichtenberg 1–2 Staaken

Staaken beat Sparta Lichtenberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.