Staaken 1–6 Lichtenberg: Result & Stats

Staaken

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Lichtenberg

6/2/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 29Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Staaken25%

×Draw19%

Lichtenberg56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StaakenExpected goals in this matchLichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.42

Staaken

1.59

Lichtenberg

2.42

Lichtenberg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

3.04

1.79

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Staaken

2.00

Lichtenberg

3.04

allows per match

Staaken

1.79

Lichtenberg

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Staaken or draw

44%

Staaken or Lichtenberg

81%

Draw or Lichtenberg

75%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+

11%

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals

80%

Staaken 2+ goals

47%

Staaken 3+ goals

21%

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

91%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

69%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)

31%

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 3.04, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Lichtenberg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lichtenberg attack 3.04 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Staaken scores more

25%

level

19%

Lichtenberg scores more

56%

Lichtenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff