Lichtenberg 4–0 Staaken: Result & Stats

Lichtenberg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Staaken

11/25/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lichtenberg63%

×Draw19%

Staaken18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LichtenbergExpected goals in this matchStaaken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.16

Lichtenberg

2.32

Staaken

1.16

Lichtenberg creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

2.62

creates per match

1.38

0.93

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Lichtenberg

2.62

Staaken

1.38

allows per match

Lichtenberg

0.93

Staaken

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lichtenberg ↓

Staaken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lichtenberg or draw

82%

Lichtenberg or Staaken

81%

Draw or Staaken

37%

Winning margin

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

41%

Staaken wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

90%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

67%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

40%

Staaken 1+ goals

69%

Staaken 2+ goals

32%

Staaken 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

78%

Staaken (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lichtenberg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lichtenberg attack 2.62 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.32

Staaken attack 1.38 + Lichtenberg defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lichtenberg scores more

63%

level

19%

Staaken scores more

18%

Lichtenberg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff