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Staaken vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
3/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Staaken38%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
1.71
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 76 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
60%
Staaken or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
78%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
62%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
19%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
82%
Staaken 2+ goals
51%
Staaken 3+ goals
24%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
83%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
53%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
48%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Staaken scores more
38%
level
22%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
40%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Staaken vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Staaken 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Staaken in Berlin.