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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Staaken
Staaken
9/3/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Sportanlage Am Rosenhag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf53%
×Draw22%
Staaken26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.02
Staaken
1.36

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
74%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Staaken
78%
Draw or Staaken
47%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
31%
Staaken wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
60%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
33%
Staaken 1+ goals
74%
Staaken 2+ goals
39%
Staaken 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
67%
Staaken (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.02

Staaken attack 1.38 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
53%
level
22%
Staaken scores more
26%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Staaken

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Staaken 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Am Rosenhag in Berlin.