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St. Truiden vs SK Beveren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
11/28/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 14Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

St. Truiden48%
×Draw25%
SK Beveren27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.64
SK Beveren
1.16

St. Truiden creates 41% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 48 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.43
SK Beveren
1.10

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.21
SK Beveren
1.85

finishing

St. Truiden+0.00on par
SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

SK Beveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
73%
St. Truiden or SK Beveren
75%
Draw or SK Beveren
52%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
25%
SK Beveren wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
81%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
49%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
23%
SK Beveren 1+ goals
69%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
32%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
64%
SK Beveren (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 138 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.43 + SK Beveren defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.64

SK Beveren attack 1.10 + St. Truiden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Truiden scores more
48%
level
25%
SK Beveren scores more
27%

St. Truiden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: St. Truiden 1–1 SK Beveren

St. Truiden and SK Beveren drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stayen in St.-Trond.