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SK Beveren vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

SK Beveren
SK Beveren
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
12/26/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 21Freethiel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SK Beveren32%
×Draw24%
St. Truiden43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Beveren
1.36
St. Truiden
1.61

St. Truiden creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 139 away

creates per match

SK Beveren
1.11
St. Truiden
1.17

allows per match

SK Beveren
2.06
St. Truiden
1.61

finishing

SK Beveren+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Beveren ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SK Beveren or draw
57%
SK Beveren or St. Truiden
76%
Draw or St. Truiden
68%

Winning margin

SK Beveren wins by 2+
14%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SK Beveren 1+ goals
74%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
39%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
16%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
80%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
48%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SK Beveren (draw refunded)
43%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Beveren at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Beveren attack 1.11 + St. Truiden defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

St. Truiden attack 1.17 + SK Beveren defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SK Beveren scores more
32%
level
24%
St. Truiden scores more
43%

St. Truiden at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden

SK Beveren beat St. Truiden 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at Freethiel Stadion in Beveren.