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St. Truiden vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
9/1/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 6Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

St. Truiden49%
×Draw25%
Oostende26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.60
Oostende
1.11

St. Truiden creates 44% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 86 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.42
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.20
Oostende
1.79

finishing

St. Truiden+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
74%
St. Truiden or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
51%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
25%
Oostende wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
80%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
47%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
22%
Oostende 1+ goals
67%
Oostende 2+ goals
30%
Oostende 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
65%
Oostende (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.20 · 139 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.42 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Oostende attack 1.02 + St. Truiden defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Truiden scores more
49%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
26%

St. Truiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: St. Truiden 1–0 Oostende

St. Truiden beat Oostende 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stayen in Sint- Truiden.