Oostende 0–0 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

St. Truiden

2/26/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende38%

×Draw25%

St. Truiden38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

Oostende

1.47

St. Truiden

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 141 away

1.34

creates per match

1.16

1.78

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

St. Truiden

1.16

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

St. Truiden

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

62%

Oostende or St. Truiden

75%

Draw or St. Truiden

62%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

18%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

77%

Oostende 2+ goals

43%

Oostende 3+ goals

18%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

77%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

43%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

50%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + St. Truiden defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

St. Truiden attack 1.16 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more

38%

level

25%

St. Truiden scores more

38%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

B. Capon

Oostende · M

7.7

Match Events

58'

Daiki Hashioka

58'

S. Kagawa← C. Brüls

58'

João Klauss← D. Hayashi

59'

63'

71'

74'

75'

86'

A. Albanese← D. Atanga

88'

N. Bätzner← Kenny Rocha Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeSt.

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots8

4Corners4

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

476Total Passes328

339Accurate Passes218

71%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2