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Oostende vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
2/6/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 24Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Oostende38%
×Draw25%
St. Truiden37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.49
St. Truiden
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 141 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.37
St. Truiden
1.16

allows per match

Oostende
1.76
St. Truiden
1.60

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
63%
Oostende or St. Truiden
75%
Draw or St. Truiden
62%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
18%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
77%
Oostende 2+ goals
44%
Oostende 3+ goals
19%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
77%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
43%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
51%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.37 + St. Truiden defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

St. Truiden attack 1.16 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more
38%
level
25%
St. Truiden scores more
37%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oostende vs St. Truiden

Oostende beat St. Truiden 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.