St. Truiden 3–3 Dender: Result & Stats

St. Truiden

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dender

A. Bertaccini 53'

K. Zahiroleslam 30', 22'

A. Akman 90+1'

B. Nsimba 48'

R. Květ 13'

8/17/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 4Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

St. Truiden49%

×Draw23%

Dender28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. TruidenExpected goals in this matchDender

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.32

St. Truiden

1.83

Dender

1.32

St. Truiden creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 35 away

1.74

creates per match

1.22

1.42

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

St. Truiden

1.74

Dender

1.22

allows per match

St. Truiden

1.42

Dender

1.92

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

St. Truiden-0.25scores less

Dender-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Dender →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw

72%

St. Truiden or Dender

77%

Draw or Dender

51%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+

27%

Dender wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals

84%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

54%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

28%

Dender 1+ goals

73%

Dender 2+ goals

38%

Dender 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

64%

Dender (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.42 · 49 matches

Dender away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.92 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.74 + Dender defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dender attack 1.22 + St. Truiden defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Truiden scores more

49%

level

23%

Dender scores more

28%

St. Truiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

K. Zahiroleslam

St. Truiden · F

9.5

Match Events

13'

R. Květ

22'

K. Zahiroleslam↳ R. Ito

30'

K. Zahiroleslam↳ R. Ogawa

48'

B. Nsimba↳ J. Pupe

53'

A. Bertaccini↳ K. Zahiroleslam

63'

66'

67'

67'

69'

W. Janssens← R. Vanwesemael

76'

A. Akman← G. Ruyssen

76'

R. M'Barki← D. Hrnčár

81'

A. Nhaili← A. Bertaccini

88'

J. Barnes← K. Zahiroleslam

88'

H. Lambotte← R. Yamamoto

90'

Rein Van Helden

90+4'

Lennard HensGoal confirmed

90+1'

A. Akman↳ L. Hens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St.Dender

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots13

1.75Expected Goals (xG)0.91

3Corners7

10Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target7

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

419Total Passes443

344Accurate Passes346

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-1.14Goals Prevented-1.14

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4