Dender vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 35+ matches
Dender35%
St. Truiden40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 35 home / 49 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dender ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dender at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.56 · 35 matches
St. Truiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dender attack 1.16 + St. Truiden defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32
St. Truiden attack 1.32 + Dender defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
St. Truiden at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Club Brugge KV
Union St. GilloiseSt. Truiden
Genk
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
KVC Westerlo
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
Zulte Waregem
Antwerp
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
RAAL La LouvièreDender
Lommel United
Patro Eisden
Beerschot VA
LiègeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Dender host St. Truiden on Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 17:15. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Dender 2–1 St. Truiden
Dender beat St. Truiden 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 8, 2025.
Goals: B. Nsimba (39' pen, 53'), D. Lamkel Zé (52').
St. Truiden controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 14.
The match was played at DENDER Football Complex in Denderleeuw.