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St. Pölten W vs First Vienna W — Frauenliga 2019

St. Pölten W
St. Pölten W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
First Vienna W
First Vienna W
8/15/2025FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 1NV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

St. Pölten W73%
×Draw15%
First Vienna W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten W
2.96
First Vienna W
1.18

St. Pölten W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 49 away

creates per match

St. Pölten W
4.27
First Vienna W
1.94

allows per match

St. Pölten W
0.41
First Vienna W
1.65

finishing

St. Pölten W+0.00on par
First Vienna W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten W ↓

First Vienna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

St. Pölten W or draw
87%
St. Pölten W or First Vienna W
85%
Draw or First Vienna W
27%

Winning margin

St. Pölten W wins by 2+
53%
First Vienna W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

St. Pölten W 1+ goals
95%
St. Pölten W 2+ goals
79%
St. Pölten W 3+ goals
55%
First Vienna W 1+ goals
69%
First Vienna W 2+ goals
33%
First Vienna W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)
85%
First Vienna W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten W at home — creates 4.27, concedes 0.41 · 64 matches

First Vienna W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten W attack 4.27 + First Vienna W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.96

First Vienna W attack 1.94 + St. Pölten W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

St. Pölten W scores more
73%
level
15%
First Vienna W scores more
13%

St. Pölten W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauenliga: St. Pölten W 3–0 First Vienna W

St. Pölten W beat First Vienna W 3-0 in Frauenliga on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at NV Arena.