First Vienna W 2–1 St. Pölten W: Result & Stats

First Vienna W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

St. Pölten W

11/24/2024

Frauenliga · Round 12Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

First Vienna W21%

×Draw19%

St. Pölten W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First Vienna WExpected goals in this matchSt. Pölten W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.45

First Vienna W

1.39

St. Pölten W

2.45

St. Pölten W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

2.29

creates per match

3.60

1.29

allows per match

0.48

creates per match

First Vienna W

2.29

St. Pölten W

3.60

allows per match

First Vienna W

1.29

St. Pölten W

0.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna W+0.00on par

St. Pölten W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna W ↓

St. Pölten W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

First Vienna W or draw

40%

First Vienna W or St. Pölten W

81%

Draw or St. Pölten W

79%

Winning margin

First Vienna W wins by 2+

9%

St. Pölten W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

First Vienna W 1+ goals

75%

First Vienna W 2+ goals

40%

First Vienna W 3+ goals

16%

St. Pölten W 1+ goals

91%

St. Pölten W 2+ goals

70%

St. Pölten W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

First Vienna W (draw refunded)

26%

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

St. Pölten W away — creates 3.60, concedes 0.48 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna W attack 2.29 + St. Pölten W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

St. Pölten W attack 3.60 + First Vienna W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

First Vienna W scores more

21%

level

19%

St. Pölten W scores more

60%

St. Pölten W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff