St. Pauli U19 1–0 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

St. Pauli U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paderborn U19

Aduramane Mané 90+2'

4/12/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 10Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

St. Pauli U1940%

×Draw22%

Paderborn U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.79

St. Pauli U19

1.84

Paderborn U19

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

1.91

creates per match

2.15

1.43

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

62%

St. Pauli U19 or Paderborn U19

78%

Draw or Paderborn U19

60%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

21%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

84%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

55%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

28%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

83%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

53%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.84

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Paderborn U19 scores more

38%

St. Pauli U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

E. Eroglu← T. Hense

59'

M. Herrmann← F. Dibamba

69'

J. Markötter← A. Altay

73'

F. Meyer← K. George

77'

C. Rahr← M. Stüven

77'

M. Zander← V. Schmidtner

81'

J. Kerlen← F. Babak

87'

Aduramane Mané← A. Amaglo

87'

T. Zimmermann← W. Kaba

90+2'

Aduramane Mané

St.

Paderborn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Schick

59'▲E. Eroglu←▼T. Hense

59'▲M. Herrmann←▼F. Dibamba

77'▲C. Rahr←▼M. Stüven

77'▲M. Zander←▼V. Schmidtner

87'▲Aduramane Mané←▼A. Amaglo

87'▲T. Zimmermann←▼W. Kaba

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

ErogluHerrmannRahrZanderManéZimmermannFinner

Manager: I. Kalkan

69'▲J. Markötter←▼A. Altay

73'▲F. Meyer←▼K. George

81'▲J. Kerlen←▼F. Babak

Paderborn U19 substitutes

MarkötterMeyerKerlenObertrifter