Paderborn U19 3–1 St. Pauli U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

St. Pauli U19

H. Koch 82', 14'

M. Theiß 75'

T. Hense 25'

2/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paderborn U1950%

×Draw21%

St. Pauli U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.69

Paderborn U19

2.22

St. Pauli U19

1.69

Paderborn U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

2.34

creates per match

2.05

1.32

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

70%

Paderborn U19 or St. Pauli U19

79%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

50%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

30%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

89%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

65%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

38%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

82%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

50%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

63%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.22

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

30%

Paderborn U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

H. Koch

25'

T. Hense

63'

E. Gündoğdu← F. Babak

63'

M. Theiß← A. Altay

67'

W. Kaba← T. Hense

75'

75'

79'

82'

83'

Paderborn

St.

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Koch

Naranjo

▼

Altay

Manager: I. Kalkan

63'▲E. Gündoğdu←▼F. Babak

63'▲M. Theiß←▼A. Altay

79'▲F. Meyer←▼J. Peters

83'▲K. George←▼H. Koch

Paderborn U19 substitutes

GündoğduTheißMeyerGeorgeMarkötterJukaBrill

Manager: N. Schick

67'▲W. Kaba←▼T. Hense

75'▲J. Addo←▼P. Schultz

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

KabaAddoBeckerMoerchen

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs St. Pauli U19

Paderborn U19 beat St. Pauli U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: H. Koch (14', 82'), T. Hense (25'), M. Theiß (75').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs St. Pauli U19