Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Pauli U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
8/19/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 2Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

St. Pauli U1956%
×Draw20%
Osnabrück U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli U19
2.19
Osnabrück U19
1.35

St. Pauli U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 50 away

creates per match

St. Pauli U19
1.93
Osnabrück U19
1.22

allows per match

St. Pauli U19
1.49
Osnabrück U19
2.46

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw
77%
St. Pauli U19 or Osnabrück U19
80%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
44%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
34%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
89%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
64%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
37%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
74%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
39%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.93 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.19

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
23%

St. Pauli U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Pauli U19 4 – 1 Osnabrück U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Osnabrück U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Königskinderweg in Hamburg.