Osnabrück U19 2–2 St. Pauli U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

St. Pauli U19

2/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Osnabrück U1934%

×Draw21%

St. Pauli U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.02

Osnabrück U19

1.74

St. Pauli U19

2.02

St. Pauli U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 72 away

1.34

creates per match

2.01

2.04

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.34

St. Pauli U19

2.01

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

2.04

St. Pauli U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

55%

Osnabrück U19 or St. Pauli U19

79%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

66%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

17%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

82%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

52%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

25%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

87%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

60%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

43%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 50 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.34 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

34%

level

21%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

45%

St. Pauli U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff