St. Pauli U19 1–0 Niendorfer TSV U19

St. Pauli U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

T. Protzek 39'

9/16/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 5Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Pauli U1965%

×Draw18%

Niendorfer TSV U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.21

St. Pauli U19

2.49

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.21

St. Pauli U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 29 away

1.91

creates per match

1.00

1.43

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

83%

St. Pauli U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

82%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

35%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

43%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

92%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

71%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

45%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

70%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

34%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.49

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

65%

level

18%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

17%

St. Pauli U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

T. Protzek

46'

U. Ataykaya← A. Gohoua

62'

O. Lenz← N. Nadj

62'

S. Dursun← T. Protzek

70'

A. Abdul Rauf← M. Zoch

75'

J. Jaeger← S. Omar

83'

M. Seiffert← A. Loubongo-MBoungou

88'

O. Masalci← A. Altuntas

89'

M. Timm← A. Cevdet

St.

Niendorfer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Protzek

▼

Loubongo-

Manager: R. Elert

46'▲U. Ataykaya←▼A. Gohoua

62'▲O. Lenz←▼N. Nadj

62'▲S. Dursun←▼T. Protzek

83'▲M. Seiffert←▼A. Loubongo-MBoungou

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

AtaykayaLenzDursunSeiffertMeloHeimFlach

Manager: A. Prohn

70'▲A. Abdul Rauf←▼M. Zoch

75'▲J. Jaeger←▼S. Omar

88'▲O. Masalci←▼A. Altuntas

89'▲M. Timm←▼A. Cevdet

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

RaufJaegerMasalciTimmAkkusWeber