Niendorfer TSV U19 2–3 St. Pauli U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

St. Pauli U19

M. Cherif 65'

M. Zoch 2'

A. Gohoua 75'

A. Hartmann 72' (OG)

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou 60'

2/23/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1922%

×Draw18%

St. Pauli U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.59

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.55

St. Pauli U19

2.59

St. Pauli U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

2.05

3.13

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

41%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or St. Pauli U19

82%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

78%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

10%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

79%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

46%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

20%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

92%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

73%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

27%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

22%

level

18%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

59%

St. Pauli U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

M. Zoch

44'

A. Cevdet← J. Mensah

54'

A. Gohoua← M. Seiffert

54'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou← M. Senger

54'

N. Nadj← T. Protzek

56'

N. Denis← J. Jaeger

60'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou

65'

M. Cherif

70'

A. Hartmann← M. Timm

72'

A. HartmannOwn goal

75'

A. Gohoua

79'

J. Asare← A. Tourgaidis

88'

H. Santos Teixeira← S. Dursun

Niendorfer

St.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

44'▲A. Cevdet←▼J. Mensah

56'▲N. Denis←▼J. Jaeger

70'▲A. Hartmann←▼M. Timm

79'▲J. Asare←▼A. Tourgaidis

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

CevdetDenisHartmannAsareKönigReinossMasalci

Manager: R. Elert

54'▲A. Gohoua←▼M. Seiffert

54'▲A. Loubongo-M'Boungou←▼M. Senger

54'▲N. Nadj←▼T. Protzek

88'▲H. Santos Teixeira←▼S. Dursun

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

GohouaLoubongo-M'BoungouNadjTeixeiraMeloSchmidtOelkers

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 2–3 St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 23, 2019.

Goals: M. Zoch (2'), A. Loubongo-M'Boungou (60'), M. Cherif (65'), A. Hartmann (72' o.g.), A. Gohoua (75').

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 2–3 St. Pauli U19