St. Pauli U19 4–0 Hennef 05 U19: Result & Stats

St. Pauli U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hennef 05 U19

M. Zander 86'

E. Eroglu 78'

M. Stüven 74'

T. Hense 39'

3/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

St. Pauli U1961%

×Draw19%

Hennef 05 U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.37

St. Pauli U19

2.46

Hennef 05 U19

1.37

St. Pauli U19 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 13 away

1.91

creates per match

1.31

1.43

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

80%

St. Pauli U19 or Hennef 05 U19

81%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

39%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

40%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

91%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

70%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

44%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

75%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

40%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

20%

St. Pauli U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

T. Hense

46'

N. Mofa← L. Dang

46'

S. Pietrek← S. Music

61'

P. Schultz← T. Dilerim

68'

B. Yörük← H. Suguro

68'

D. Nduchekwe← K. Cornelius

70'

E. Eroglu← N. Schmidt

70'

W. Kaba← T. Hense

74'

M. Stüven

75'

J. Fuhrmann← S. Andric

78'

81'

82'

86'

St.

Hennef

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hense

▼

Dilerim

Manager: N. Schick

61'▲P. Schultz←▼T. Dilerim

70'▲E. Eroglu←▼N. Schmidt

70'▲W. Kaba←▼T. Hense

81'▲M. Zander←▼M. Stüven

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

SchultzErogluKabaZanderDibambaMoerchenPolitz

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲N. Mofa←▼L. Dang

46'▲S. Pietrek←▼S. Music

68'▲B. Yörük←▼H. Suguro

68'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼K. Cornelius

75'▲J. Fuhrmann←▼S. Andric

82'▲K. Becher←▼A. Rznic

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

MofaPietrekYörükNduchekweFuhrmannBecherMüller

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Hennef 05 U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Hennef 05 U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 2, 2025.

Goals: T. Hense (39'), M. Stüven (74'), E. Eroglu (78'), M. Zander (86').

The match was played at Sportanlage Königskinderweg in Hamburg.

St. Pauli U19 vs Hennef 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Hennef 05 U19