Hennef 05 U19 3–2 St. Pauli U19: Result & Stats

Hennef 05 U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

St. Pauli U19

K. Cornelius 76'

B. Yörük 48'

A. Rznic 10'

F. Dibamba 63'

T. Hoffmann 21'

5/3/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1932%

×Draw21%

St. Pauli U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.10

Hennef 05 U19

1.71

St. Pauli U19

2.10

St. Pauli U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

1.31

creates per match

2.05

2.15

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

53%

Hennef 05 U19 or St. Pauli U19

79%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

68%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

16%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

82%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

51%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

24%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

88%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

62%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

40%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

47%

St. Pauli U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Rznic

21'

T. Hoffmann

48'

B. Yörük

58'

M. Stüven← Aduramane Mané

58'

Y. Afghani← M. Amaniampong

63'

F. Dibamba

67'

H. Suguro← A. Bouakran

67'

S. Music← L. Dang

70'

L. Serindag← N. Palapies

70'

A. Ibrahimović← M. Zander

76'

K. Cornelius

80'

J. Fuhrmann← N. Mofa

80'

M. Yıldız← S. Pietrek

80'

N. Daas← A. Rznic

81'

J. Bärwind← V. Schmidtner

Hennef

St.

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

67'▲H. Suguro←▼A. Bouakran

67'▲S. Music←▼L. Dang

80'▲J. Fuhrmann←▼N. Mofa

80'▲M. Yıldız←▼S. Pietrek

80'▲N. Daas←▼A. Rznic

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

SuguroMusicFuhrmannYıldızDaasHellwig

Manager: N. Schick

58'▲M. Stüven←▼Aduramane Mané

58'▲Y. Afghani←▼M. Amaniampong

70'▲L. Serindag←▼N. Palapies

70'▲A. Ibrahimović←▼M. Zander

81'▲J. Bärwind←▼V. Schmidtner

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

StüvenAfghaniSerindagIbrahimovićBärwindWitte