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St. Pauli U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
2/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

St. Pauli U1958%
×Draw20%
Chemnitzer FC U1922%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli U19
2.35
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.40

St. Pauli U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 52 away

creates per match

St. Pauli U19
1.91
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.38

allows per match

St. Pauli U19
1.43
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.79

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw
78%
St. Pauli U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
80%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
42%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
37%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
90%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
68%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
75%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.35

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more
58%
level
20%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
22%

St. Pauli U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

St.
Chemnitzer
N. Schick
Manager: N. Schick
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

St. Pauli U19 and Chemnitzer FC U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.