Chemnitzer FC U19 2–4 St. Pauli U19: Result & Stats

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

St. Pauli U19

S. Roscher 87'

M. Graubner 58'

P. Beleme 75'

F. Roggow 74' (pen)

S. Dursun 29'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou 10'

2/23/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1933%

×Draw21%

St. Pauli U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.11

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.77

St. Pauli U19

2.11

St. Pauli U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

1.43

creates per match

2.05

2.17

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.43

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.17

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

54%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or St. Pauli U19

79%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

67%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

17%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

83%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

53%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

26%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

88%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

62%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

42%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

33%

level

21%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

46%

St. Pauli U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou

29'

S. Dursun

46'

P.KÄMPFER← P. Seifert

58'

M. Graubner

63'

F. Roggow← S. Dursun

74'

F. RoggowPenalty

75'

P. Beleme

79'

S. Djalo← A. Loubongo-MBoungou

81'

M. Grosche← S. Völke

81'

P. Meseberg← L. Günther

87'

S. Roscher

Chemnitzer

St.

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Loubongo-

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: K. Jendrossek

46'▲P.KÄMPFER←▼P. Seifert

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

P.KÄMPFERAdamSchubertEhrhardtKentschFranke

Manager: R. Elert

63'▲F. Roggow←▼S. Dursun

79'▲S. Djalo←▼A. Loubongo-MBoungou

81'▲M. Grosche←▼S. Völke

81'▲P. Meseberg←▼L. Günther

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

RoggowDjaloGroscheMesebergJacobs

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 23, 2020.

Goals: A. Loubongo-M'Boungou (10'), S. Dursun (29'), M. Graubner (58'), F. Roggow (74' pen), P. Beleme (75'), S. Roscher (87').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs St. Pauli U19