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St. Michael Bleiburg vs Ferlach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
CANC
21:00
Ferlach
Ferlach
5/17/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 25Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg34%
×Draw23%
Ferlach43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.57
Ferlach
1.79

Ferlach creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
Ferlach
1.16

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
Ferlach
1.76

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
Ferlach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Ferlach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
57%
St. Michael Bleiburg or Ferlach
77%
Draw or Ferlach
66%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
16%
Ferlach wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
79%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
46%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
21%
Ferlach 1+ goals
83%
Ferlach 2+ goals
53%
Ferlach 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
44%
Ferlach (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Ferlach away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Ferlach defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ferlach attack 1.16 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
34%
level
23%
Ferlach scores more
43%

Ferlach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Michael Bleiburg face Ferlach (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with St. Michael Bleiburg hosting Ferlach. Match starts May 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

St. Michael Bleiburg host Ferlach at Sportpark St. Michael.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.