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Ferlach vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Ferlach
Ferlach
CANC
21:00
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
5/30/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 28Sportplatz Ferlach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ferlach51%
×Draw22%
St. Michael Bleiburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferlach
1.91
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.31

Ferlach creates 46% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ferlach
1.79
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Ferlach
1.46
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Ferlach+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferlach ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferlach or draw
74%
Ferlach or St. Michael Bleiburg
78%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
49%

Winning margin

Ferlach wins by 2+
29%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ferlach 1+ goals
85%
Ferlach 2+ goals
57%
Ferlach 3+ goals
30%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
73%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
38%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ferlach (draw refunded)
66%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferlach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferlach attack 1.79 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.91

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Ferlach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ferlach scores more
51%
level
22%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
26%

Ferlach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferlach vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Match Preview

Ferlach face St. Michael Bleiburg on May 30, 2021 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ferlach host St. Michael Bleiburg at Sportplatz Ferlach.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.