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St. Michael Bleiburg vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
CANC
21:00
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
4/18/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg28%
×Draw20%
Dellach im Gailtal52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.60
Dellach im Gailtal
2.23

Dellach im Gailtal creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
48%
St. Michael Bleiburg or Dellach im Gailtal
80%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
72%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
13%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
80%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
47%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
22%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
89%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
65%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
35%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
28%
level
20%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
52%

Dellach im Gailtal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Michael Bleiburg face Dellach im Gailtal (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with St. Michael Bleiburg hosting Dellach im Gailtal. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

St. Michael Bleiburg host Dellach im Gailtal at Sportpark St. Michael.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.