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Dellach im Gailtal vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
FT
7 – 1
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
10/29/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal60%
×Draw19%
St. Michael Bleiburg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dellach im Gailtal
2.34
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.30

Dellach im Gailtal creates 80% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal
2.65
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal
1.45
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw
80%
Dellach im Gailtal or St. Michael Bleiburg
81%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
40%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
38%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
90%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
67%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
41%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
73%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
37%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
75%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.34

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more
60%
level
19%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
20%

Dellach im Gailtal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dellach im Gailtal 7 – 1 St. Michael Bleiburg

Dellach im Gailtal beat St. Michael Bleiburg 7-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail in Dellach/Gail.