St. Margarethen / Bur 0–3 Parndorf: Result & Stats

St. Margarethen / Bur

FT

0 – 3

Parndorf

3/23/2024

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 19Greabochstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

St. Margarethen / Bur30%

×Draw22%

Parndorf48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Margarethen / BurExpected goals in this matchParndorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.90

St. Margarethen / Bur

1.47

Parndorf

1.90

Parndorf creates 29% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 71 away

1.66

creates per match

2.20

1.59

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

St. Margarethen / Bur

1.66

Parndorf

2.20

allows per match

St. Margarethen / Bur

1.59

Parndorf

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par

Parndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Margarethen / Bur ↓

Parndorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

St. Margarethen / Bur or draw

52%

St. Margarethen / Bur or Parndorf

78%

Draw or Parndorf

70%

Winning margin

St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+

14%

Parndorf wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals

77%

St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals

43%

St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals

18%

Parndorf 1+ goals

85%

Parndorf 2+ goals

56%

Parndorf 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)

39%

Parndorf (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Margarethen / Bur at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 87 matches

Parndorf away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.28 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.66 + Parndorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Parndorf attack 2.20 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Margarethen / Bur scores more

30%

level

22%

Parndorf scores more

48%

Parndorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff