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Parndorf vs St. Margarethen / Bur — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Parndorf
Parndorf
FT
2 – 1
St. Margarethen / Bur
St. Margarethen / Bur
9/6/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 6Heidebodenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Parndorf65%
×Draw19%
St. Margarethen / Bur16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
2.33
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.06

Parndorf creates 120% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 86 away

creates per match

Parndorf
2.84
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.31

allows per match

Parndorf
0.82
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.81

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

St. Margarethen / Bur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
84%
Parndorf or St. Margarethen / Bur
81%
Draw or St. Margarethen / Bur
35%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
43%
St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
90%
Parndorf 2+ goals
67%
Parndorf 3+ goals
41%
St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals
65%
St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals
29%
St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
80%
St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.82 · 73 matches

St. Margarethen / Bur away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 2.84 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.33

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.31 + Parndorf defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Parndorf scores more
65%
level
19%
St. Margarethen / Bur scores more
16%

Parndorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parndorf vs St. Margarethen / Bur

Parndorf beat St. Margarethen / Bur 2-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Heidebodenstadion in Parndorf.