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St. Louis SG vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
FT
2 – 1
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
6/17/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28World Wide Technology Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

St. Louis SG47%
×Draw25%
Kaw Valley27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis SG
1.58
Kaw Valley
1.14

St. Louis SG creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

St. Louis SG
1.67
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

St. Louis SG
1.00
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

St. Louis SG+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis SG ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

St. Louis SG or draw
73%
St. Louis SG or Kaw Valley
75%
Draw or Kaw Valley
53%

Winning margin

St. Louis SG wins by 2+
24%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Louis SG 1+ goals
79%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
47%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
21%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
68%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
32%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
63%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis SG at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis SG attack 1.67 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + St. Louis SG defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Louis SG scores more
47%
level
25%
Kaw Valley scores more
27%

St. Louis SG at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Louis SG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis SG vs Kaw Valley

St. Louis SG beat Kaw Valley 2-1 in USL League Two on June 17, 2021.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park in St. Louis, Missouri.