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Kaw Valley vs St. Louis SG — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
2 – 6
St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
7/2/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kaw Valley38%
×Draw20%
St. Louis SG42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
2.21
St. Louis SG
2.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
St. Louis SG
2.33

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
St. Louis SG
2.33

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
St. Louis SG+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

St. Louis SG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
58%
Kaw Valley or St. Louis SG
80%
Draw or St. Louis SG
62%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
21%
St. Louis SG wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
89%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
65%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
38%
St. Louis SG 1+ goals
90%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
67%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
48%
St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

St. Louis SG away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + St. Louis SG defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

St. Louis SG attack 2.33 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
38%
level
20%
St. Louis SG scores more
42%

St. Louis SG at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Louis SG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaw Valley vs St. Louis SG

St. Louis SG beat Kaw Valley 6-2 in USL League Two on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.