Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Louis SG vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
FT
4 – 1
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/20/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 32World Wide Technology Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

St. Louis SG58%
×Draw22%
Green Bay Voyageurs20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis SG
1.89
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

St. Louis SG creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

St. Louis SG
1.67
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

St. Louis SG
1.00
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

St. Louis SG+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis SG ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

St. Louis SG or draw
80%
St. Louis SG or Green Bay Voyageurs
78%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
42%

Winning margin

St. Louis SG wins by 2+
34%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

St. Louis SG 1+ goals
85%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
56%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
29%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
63%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
26%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
75%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis SG at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis SG attack 1.67 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + St. Louis SG defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

St. Louis SG scores more
58%
level
22%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
20%

St. Louis SG at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "St. Louis SG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis SG vs Green Bay Voyageurs

St. Louis SG beat Green Bay Voyageurs 4-1 in USL League Two on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park in St. Louis, Missouri.