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Green Bay Voyageurs vs St. Louis SG — USL League Two 2018

Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
FT
0 – 0
St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
5/30/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14Capital Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs39%
×Draw23%
St. Louis SG39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.67
St. Louis SG
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
St. Louis SG
2.33

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
St. Louis SG
2.33

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par
St. Louis SG+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

St. Louis SG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw
61%
Green Bay Voyageurs or St. Louis SG
77%
Draw or St. Louis SG
61%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
19%
St. Louis SG wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
81%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
50%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
23%
St. Louis SG 1+ goals
81%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
50%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
50%
St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

St. Louis SG away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + St. Louis SG defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

St. Louis SG attack 2.33 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
39%
level
23%
St. Louis SG scores more
39%

Green Bay Voyageurs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Green Bay Voyageurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Green Bay Voyageurs 0–0 St. Louis SG

Green Bay Voyageurs and St. Louis SG drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Capital Credit Union Park in Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin.