St. Louis City 0–3 Los Angeles FC: Result & Stats

St. Louis City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Los Angeles FC

Son Heung-Min 60', 45'

D. Bouanga 15'

9/28/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 32Energizer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Louis City40%

×Draw25%

Los Angeles FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Louis CityExpected goals in this matchLos Angeles FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.36

St. Louis City

1.49

Los Angeles FC

1.36

St. Louis City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

1.57

1.16

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

St. Louis City

1.63

Los Angeles FC

1.57

allows per match

St. Louis City

1.16

Los Angeles FC

1.35

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

St. Louis City+0.05on par

Los Angeles FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City ↓

Los Angeles FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

St. Louis City or draw

65%

St. Louis City or Los Angeles FC

75%

Draw or Los Angeles FC

60%

Winning margin

St. Louis City wins by 2+

20%

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

St. Louis City 1+ goals

77%

St. Louis City 2+ goals

44%

St. Louis City 3+ goals

19%

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals

74%

Los Angeles FC 2+ goals

39%

Los Angeles FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City (draw refunded)

54%

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 22 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City attack 1.63 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Los Angeles FC attack 1.57 + St. Louis City defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Louis City scores more

40%

level

25%

Los Angeles FC scores more

35%

St. Louis City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Louis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Son Heung-Min

Los Angeles FC · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

15'

45'

46'

51'

58'

A. Morales← C. Durkin

58'

T. Totland← C. Wallem

60'

Son Heung-Min↳ A. Smolyakov

65'

M. Joyner← S. Jeong

65'

C. Pompeu← B. McSorley

66'

Celio Pompeu

68'

Ryan PorteousPenalty cancelled

73'

Eduard Löwen

74'

K. Hiebert← F. Fall

78'

R. Hollingshead← A. Smolyakov

78'

F. Amaya← A. Moran

87'

D. Martinez← D. Bouanga

87'

K. Nielsen← E. Segura

89'

Timo Baumgartl

90+10'

João Klauss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St.Los

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots21

0.56Expected Goals (xG)2.06

2Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots21

2On Target7

3Off Target8

3Blocked6

5Inside Box12

3Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

478Total Passes601

399Accurate Passes537

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.80Goals Prevented0.80

Discipline

14Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1