Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 35+ matches
Los Angeles FC51%
St. Louis City25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Los Angeles FC creates 54% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 35 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Los Angeles FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Los Angeles FC at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.91 · 36 matches
St. Louis City away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.72 · 35 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Los Angeles FC attack 1.65 + St. Louis City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69
St. Louis City attack 1.29 + Los Angeles FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Los Angeles FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Los Angeles FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose EarthquakesLos Angeles FC
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Los Angeles FC host St. Louis City on Thursday, 3 October 2024 at 02:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
Los Angeles FC beat St. Louis City 1-0 in Major League Soccer on October 3, 2024.
Goals: D. Bouanga (45+1').
St. Louis City controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 19.
The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.