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St. Louis City II vs Chicago Fire II — MLS Next Pro 2022

St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
8/7/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 20Ralph Korte Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

St. Louis City II55%
×Draw20%
Chicago Fire II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City II
2.24
Chicago Fire II
1.47

St. Louis City II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

creates per match

St. Louis City II
2.19
Chicago Fire II
1.84

allows per match

St. Louis City II
1.10
Chicago Fire II
2.29

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw
75%
St. Louis City II or Chicago Fire II
80%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
45%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+
33%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals
89%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
65%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
38%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
77%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
43%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
69%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

St. Louis City II scores more
55%
level
20%
Chicago Fire II scores more
25%

St. Louis City II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: St. Louis City II 2–1 Chicago Fire II

St. Louis City II beat Chicago Fire II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Ralph Korte Stadium in Edwardsville, Illinois.