Chicago Fire II 0–5 St. Louis City II

Chicago Fire II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

St. Louis City II

6/12/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 12SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chicago Fire II45%

×Draw21%

St. Louis City II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Fire IIExpected goals in this matchSt. Louis City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.75

Chicago Fire II

2.06

St. Louis City II

1.75

Chicago Fire II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 54 away

2.36

creates per match

1.94

1.56

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Chicago Fire II

2.36

St. Louis City II

1.94

allows per match

Chicago Fire II

1.56

St. Louis City II

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

St. Louis City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

St. Louis City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw

67%

Chicago Fire II or St. Louis City II

79%

Draw or St. Louis City II

55%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

26%

St. Louis City II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

87%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

61%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

34%

St. Louis City II 1+ goals

83%

St. Louis City II 2+ goals

52%

St. Louis City II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

58%

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

St. Louis City II away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.36 + St. Louis City II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

St. Louis City II attack 1.94 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more

45%

level

21%

St. Louis City II scores more

33%

Chicago Fire II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff