St Joseph FC 1–1 Modern Coast Rangers

St Joseph FC

FT

1 – 1

Modern Coast Rangers

9/22/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

St Joseph FC55%

×Draw24%

Modern Coast Rangers20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Joseph FCExpected goals in this matchModern Coast Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.92

St Joseph FC

1.69

Modern Coast Rangers

0.92

St Joseph FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.88

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

St Joseph FC

1.88

Modern Coast Rangers

0.89

allows per match

St Joseph FC

0.94

Modern Coast Rangers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw

80%

St Joseph FC or Modern Coast Rangers

76%

Draw or Modern Coast Rangers

45%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+

30%

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals

82%

St Joseph FC 2+ goals

50%

St Joseph FC 3+ goals

24%

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

60%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)

73%

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.88 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.89 + St Joseph FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

St Joseph FC scores more

55%

level

24%

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

20%

St Joseph FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff