Modern Coast Rangers 2–1 St Joseph FC

Modern Coast Rangers

FT

2 – 1

St Joseph FC

5/2/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers44%

×Draw30%

St Joseph FC26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modern Coast RangersExpected goals in this matchSt Joseph FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.86

Modern Coast Rangers

1.20

St Joseph FC

0.86

Modern Coast Rangers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

0.72

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers

1.22

St Joseph FC

1.00

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers

0.72

St Joseph FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

St Joseph FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw

74%

Modern Coast Rangers or St Joseph FC

70%

Draw or St Joseph FC

56%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

19%

St Joseph FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

70%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

34%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

12%

St Joseph FC 1+ goals

58%

St Joseph FC 2+ goals

21%

St Joseph FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

62%

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

St Joseph FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.22 + St Joseph FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

St Joseph FC attack 1.00 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

44%

level

30%

St Joseph FC scores more

26%

Modern Coast Rangers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff