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St Joseph FC vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
FT
4 – 1
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
5/19/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St Joseph FC57%
×Draw23%
Kangemi All Stars20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Joseph FC
1.79
Kangemi All Stars
0.97

St Joseph FC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

St Joseph FC
1.87
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

St Joseph FC
0.93
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw
80%
St Joseph FC or Kangemi All Stars
77%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
43%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+
32%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals
83%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
53%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
26%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
62%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
25%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
74%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.87 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + St Joseph FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

St Joseph FC scores more
57%
level
23%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
20%

St Joseph FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St Joseph FC vs Kangemi All Stars

St Joseph FC beat Kangemi All Stars 4-1 in Super League on May 19, 2018.