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Kangemi All Stars vs St Joseph FC — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
1 – 0
St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
10/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kangemi All Stars41%
×Draw28%
St Joseph FC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.25
St Joseph FC
1.03

Kangemi All Stars creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.25
St Joseph FC
1.06

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.00
St Joseph FC
1.25

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

St Joseph FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
70%
Kangemi All Stars or St Joseph FC
72%
Draw or St Joseph FC
59%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
18%
St Joseph FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
71%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
36%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
13%
St Joseph FC 1+ goals
64%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
28%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
58%
St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

St Joseph FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.25 + St Joseph FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

St Joseph FC attack 1.06 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
41%
level
28%
St Joseph FC scores more
30%

Kangemi All Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kangemi All Stars 1–0 St Joseph FC

Kangemi All Stars beat St Joseph FC 1-0 in Super League on October 13, 2018.