ST Johnstone 0–0 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raith Rovers

12/6/2025

League #180 · Round 17McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ST Johnstone54%

×Draw28%

Raith Rovers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.67

ST Johnstone

1.39

Raith Rovers

0.67

ST Johnstone creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

ST Johnstone

1.67

Raith Rovers

1.00

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.33

Raith Rovers

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

82%

ST Johnstone or Raith Rovers

72%

Draw or Raith Rovers

46%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

27%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

75%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

40%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

16%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

49%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

15%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

75%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 1.67 + Raith Rovers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + ST Johnstone defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

54%

level

28%

Raith Rovers scores more

18%

ST Johnstone at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

45'

46'

50'

62'

68'

K. Montagu← D. Easton

71'

L. Stevenson

72'

J. Rowe← P. McMullan

77'

K. Fotheringham← A. Sidibeh

80'

E. Wilson← J. Mullin

80'

C. Smith← J. Hamilton

82'

U. Ikpeazu← J. McPake

88'

J. Wanner← S. Mallan

ST

Raith

1

22

6

4

26

14

▼

Mullin

20

Brown

29

▼

Nsio

18

▼

McMullan

9

▼

Hamilton

23

▼

1

33

3

4

35

42

7

22

▼

Mallan

10

Gullan

24

▼

McPake

9

▼

Sidibeh

Manager: Simo Valakari

77'▲K. Fotheringham←▼A. Sidibeh

82'▲U. Ikpeazu←▼J. McPake

88'▲J. Wanner←▼S. Mallan

ST Johnstone substitutes

20Sinclair6Griffith8Svedberg11Stanton14Foulds15Baird18Ikpeazu21Fotheringham37Wanner

Manager: Paul Hanlon

46'▲R. Matthews←▼P. Nsio

68'▲K. Montagu←▼D. Easton

72'▲J. Rowe←▼P. McMullan

80'▲E. Wilson←▼J. Mullin

80'▲C. Smith←▼J. Hamilton

Raith Rovers substitutes

24Glavin2Rowe3Wilson8Matthews11Smith19Gentles25Montagu

League #180: ST Johnstone 0–0 Raith Rovers

ST Johnstone and Raith Rovers drew 0-0 in League #180 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.

ST Johnstone vs Raith Rovers — League #180 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #180: ST Johnstone 0–0 Raith Rovers