ST Johnstone 3–1 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Raith Rovers

M. Kirk 80'

J. McPake 51'

J. Gullan 27'

J. Hamilton 57'

7/22/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 4McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ST Johnstone54%

×Draw20%

Raith Rovers25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.50

ST Johnstone

2.25

Raith Rovers

1.50

ST Johnstone creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.63

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

ST Johnstone

2.63

Raith Rovers

2.00

allows per match

ST Johnstone

1.00

Raith Rovers

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

75%

ST Johnstone or Raith Rovers

80%

Draw or Raith Rovers

46%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

33%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

89%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

65%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

39%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

68%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.63 + Raith Rovers defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Raith Rovers attack 2.00 + ST Johnstone defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

54%

level

20%

Raith Rovers scores more

25%

ST Johnstone at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

S. Brown

27'

J. Gullan↳ R. McAlear

51'

J. Gullan

51'

J. McPake↳ A. Sidibeh

56'

J. Hamilton← L. Vaughan

56'

K. Montagu← D. Easton

57'

58'

62'

67'

67'

69'

S. Sprangler← J. Gullan

77'

R. Chin← J. Rowe

78'

J. Mullin← R. Matthews

78'

L. Gibson← L. Stevenson

79'

J. Hamilton

80'

M. Kirk↳ A. Sidibeh

Statistics

STRaith

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0