Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ST Johnstone vs Livingston — Premiership 2018

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Livingston
Livingston
9/30/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 7McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

ST Johnstone43%
×Draw27%
Livingston30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
1.35
Livingston
1.07

ST Johnstone creates 26% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 132 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
0.94
Livingston
0.94

allows per match

ST Johnstone
1.21
Livingston
1.76

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
70%
ST Johnstone or Livingston
73%
Draw or Livingston
57%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
20%
Livingston wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
74%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
39%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
15%
Livingston 1+ goals
66%
Livingston 2+ goals
29%
Livingston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
59%
Livingston (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Livingston away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.76 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Livingston defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Livingston attack 0.94 + ST Johnstone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
43%
level
27%
Livingston scores more
30%

ST Johnstone at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ST Johnstone vs Livingston

ST Johnstone and Livingston drew 1-1 in Premiership on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.