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Livingston vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2018

Livingston
Livingston
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
5/11/2024PremiershipPremiership · Relegation Round - 3Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Livingston44%
×Draw27%
ST Johnstone29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.38
ST Johnstone
1.07

Livingston creates 29% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 121 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.18
ST Johnstone
0.92

allows per match

Livingston
1.22
ST Johnstone
1.58

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
71%
Livingston or ST Johnstone
73%
Draw or ST Johnstone
56%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
21%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
75%
Livingston 2+ goals
40%
Livingston 3+ goals
16%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
66%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
29%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
60%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.18 + ST Johnstone defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

ST Johnstone attack 0.92 + Livingston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Livingston scores more
44%
level
27%
ST Johnstone scores more
29%

Livingston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Livingston 2–1 ST Johnstone

Livingston beat ST Johnstone 2-1 in Premiership on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.