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ST Johnstone vs Brechin — League Cup 2018

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Brechin
Brechin
10/10/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ST Johnstone83%
×Draw11%
Brechin6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
2.99
Brechin
0.68

ST Johnstone creates 340% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
2.77
Brechin
0.50

allows per match

ST Johnstone
0.85
Brechin
3.21

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
94%
ST Johnstone or Brechin
89%
Draw or Brechin
17%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
64%
Brechin wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
95%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
79%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
56%
Brechin 1+ goals
49%
Brechin 2+ goals
15%
Brechin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
94%
Brechin (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Brechin away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.77 + Brechin defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.99

Brechin attack 0.50 + ST Johnstone defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
83%
level
11%
Brechin scores more
6%

ST Johnstone at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: ST Johnstone 7–0 Brechin

ST Johnstone beat Brechin 7-0 in League Cup on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.