Brechin 1–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Brechin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ST Johnstone

7/13/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 1The Carnegie Fuels Stadium at Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brechin9%

×Draw15%

ST Johnstone76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

2.60

Brechin

0.78

ST Johnstone

2.60

ST Johnstone creates 233% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

0.62

creates per match

1.74

3.46

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Brechin

0.62

ST Johnstone

1.74

allows per match

Brechin

3.46

ST Johnstone

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

24%

Brechin or ST Johnstone

85%

Draw or ST Johnstone

91%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

3%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

54%

Brechin 2+ goals

18%

Brechin 3+ goals

4%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

92%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

73%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

11%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.62 + ST Johnstone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

ST Johnstone attack 1.74 + Brechin defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Brechin scores more

9%

level

15%

ST Johnstone scores more

76%

ST Johnstone at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff